Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Reasons to Dislike Ryan Howard's New Contract

David Ortiz, Jason Giambi, Troy Glaus, Mo Vaughn, Scott Rolen, Cecil Fielder, Jim Thome...all big men that did not age well. Why? Because in general players trend downward after 32 years old, especially large body type players like Ryan Howard.

Now the Phillies will have 2 players making roughly $40M dollars (Howard/Halladay) which will hinder the team in allocating money to other positions of need. Ryan Howard is a tremendous talent, one of the best pure power hitters the game has seen in awhile and I love having him on this team. 40+ homerun season for the next few years can be expected. After that though his bat will slow, his mobility in the field will lessen, and his value will drop...certainly not worth the $23M or so he'll be making.

This is just not a good deal. As many baseball analysis are saying- "The new worst deal in baseball." Ouch!

I don't think it's the worst deal ever, but I do think it's bad. Howard is an elite class of sluggers right now and probably remains there for 2-3 more seasons. After that though, his average will dip lower than it already is, his power will decrease, and rbis won't come as easily.

Also, this Howard deal was unnecessary. Why lock him up now? It's not like they got a discount. Pujols, Fielder, and others were set to become free agent 1st basemen the same year as Howard. The Yankees can't sign all of them, nor would they because of Teixeira. Just like the Jamie Moyer deal, they (Ruben Amaro Jr. & the Phillies brass) bid against themselves. Just seems foolish.
Let's take a look at what Philadelphia will be spending money on as the 2012 season dawns. Roy Halladay is signed for $20MM. Howard, too, is signed for $20MM. Chase Utley is signed for $15.3MM. Joe Blanton is signed for $10.5MM, Shane Victorino for $9.5MM, Placido Polanco for $6.4MM, Carlos Ruiz for $3.7MM, and almost certainly, Brad Lidge will be given a $1.5MM buyout. That's $87MM going to seven players to play and one player to not play.
~Major League Trade Rumors

Wow, that's a lot of holes to fill, 15 roster spots.
This contract means that, over the first 10 seasons of his career, Howard will earn approximately $190.5 million. No player -- not A-Rod, not Mauer, not Derek Jeter, not Albert Pujols -- has equaled that number, in this or any other era.
~Jayson Stark

So the Phillies think Ryan Howard is the best player, because they're certainly rewarding him like he is.

Howard is awesome, but he plays a position deep with talen in the Majors, one that can be easily plugged.

Sure a Paul Konerko or Lance Berkman aren't as productive as Howard, but could have been signed for far less years and money without a huge drop off in production. Take a look around the Majors at 1st basemen and you'll find plenty of talent.

Good to Great 1st basemen: Konerko, Berkman, Pujols, Fielder, Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Teixeira, Dunn, Butler, Youkilis, Morales, Morneau, Derek Lee, Pena, Cantu. Are they all as good as Howard? No, but some aren't that far off and they come a lot cheaper.

Also, Howard isn't anywhere close to improving against lefties, in fact every season he gets worse (including this year so far). He kills righties enough to keep his OPS high though. But really, he'll never come close to that magical 1.000+ OPS again like he had in '06. He has tremendous power and a knack for collecting rbi...great!!! However, he plays a position deep with talent in the Majors and it's not like the Phils couldn't have let him walk after 2011 and signed a lesser first basemen that was still very good and allocate the money for other pressing needs around the diamond.

391 comments:

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Jay Ballz said...

Teixeira makes over a million dollars more than Howard now and will make more than him for the coming couple years.

You left Helton off the good first basemen list. His RBI numbers could be plenty higher in the Phils' lineup.

GM-Carson said...

My apologies to Helton, who just so happens to be my fantasy 1st baseman.

Chris Fiorentino said...

"Now the Phillies will have 2 players making roughly $45M dollars (Howard/Halladay) which will hinder the team in allocating money to other positions of need."

Another guy who needs to actually LOOK AT THE FREAKING contract before writing something so blatantly INCORRECT. Ryan Howard will make $20 million a year for the next 3 years. So will Roy Halladay. How does $20 + $20 = $45? When people do not look at the contract. Don't just assume that the contract is for $25 million a year...you what they say about assuming right?

GM-Carson said...

Relax Chris. I took a deeper look at the contract after I posted this and saw exactly what you mentioned. I was more going off average annual payout when I posted this on the blog. No need to go pyscho.

Sober Austin said...

Jim Thome didn't age well? That is a ridiculous comment...While his performance has declined with age, it has done so at a reasonable level...You are an idiot

GM-Carson said...

Thome didn't age well in regards to he was forced to become a DH because his health (aka back) didn't allow for him to play the field.

Go fuck yourself idiot.

GM-Carson said...

And although Thome put up decent offensive #'s, it's nowhere close to being worthy of one of the richest salaries in baseball, which is what Howard got.

RW said...

Konerko and Berkman are good players, but they most certainly ARE a dropoff in production. Konerko is now good for 90-ish RBI in a hitter's park (as is Philly) while Berkman has nowhere near the power.

Yeah, it was too much money, but that dropoff of 10 homers & 30 RBI could be the difference between the playoffs and going home early. Besides, if the Phils let Howard go, you don't think the division rival Mets would scoop him up to torture the Philly faithful for years to come (for a similar amount of cash)?

RW said...

And Helton is a shell of his former self. Look at his numbers since '05; he's Mark Grace (>.300, 17 HR, 90 RBI).

GM-Carson said...

RW- I want Howard as a Phillie. But my problem is keeping him at such a high price means making consessions at other positions. Halladay and Howard will be making a large chunk of change and that leaves less money to fill other vacancies. One slugger and one staff ace does not a championship club make.

RW said...

If the Phils have a good farm system, it can happen. The Braves (until the last few years, when ownership/sale caused their payroll to freeze & thus miss out on many moves) had most of their money tied up in a few stars (Chipper, Smoltz, A. Jones, Hudson) but were able to mitigate that by bringing up young talent for basement prices (Furcal, Francoeur, Y. Escobar, Millwood) and thus field playoff caliber teams.

Although that E. Andrus/Salty for Texieriea deal is going to sting the franchise & payroll for many more years to come.

Eh, if Howard drops all the way down to 32 homers and 110 RBI in his last couple years of the deal, it'll be worth it to continue the 45/140 years for a bit longer. Then again, Andruw Jones broke down awfully early, didn't he?

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